Hope all is well. The NASDAQ again underperformed the other major equity indexes by a wide margin, and at one point on Friday, it was 10% below the record high it had set three weeks earlier, briefly putting it in a correction. The NASDAQ’s relatively high weighting in tech stocks has hurt the index’s recent results. The S&P 500 and the Dow rose sharply on Monday, tumbled on Thursday, and fell on Friday morning before staging an afternoon rally, leading to modest overall weekly gains for both indexes. The volatility was in part a side effect of a sharp rise in yields of government bonds. Government bond prices were under pressure again, as the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond soared above 1.60% at one point on Friday, the highest in 13 months.  I have broken down this week’s news using quotes from legendary comedians.

"The trouble with unemployment is that the minute you wake up in the morning you're on the job" - Slappy White
​
People are getting back to work and off of unemployment. The U.S. economy generated 379,000 jobs in February, more than double the amount that most economists had expected. The bulk of the job growth came in leisure and hospitality, where hiring picked up in a segment of the economy that’s been hit hard by the pandemic.

“If you can see the handwriting on the wall... you're on the toilet.” -Redd Foxx
 
The market is trying to see the handwriting on the wall when it comes to Fed policy.  Comments on Thursday from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell triggered at least some of a steep market decline that afternoon. Powell suggested that inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months.  Markets took that as a sign the Fed might raise rates sooner than expected. While ignoring that Chair Powell also said that it would likely prove temporary—and not enough for the Fed to alter its current policy of maintaining ultralow interest rates.

“Just cause you got the monkey off your back doesn't mean the circus has left town.” -George Carlin
 
Corporate earnings got the monkey off it's back and finally turned positive year over year, though we are nowhere near being back to normal.  S&P 500 recorded an average earnings gain of 3.9% over the same quarter a year earlier. The index is now reporting year-over-year growth in earnings in Q4 2020 for the first time since Q4 2019. Analysts expect double-digit earnings growth for all four quarters of 2021 but that will largely depend on how quickly cities like New York are able to fully reopen.
 
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​Hope all is well. It was a mixed week for stocks, as the Dow recorded a slight gain and the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ posted modest declines. An improved economic outlook lifted many stocks in the energy and financial sectors, which tend to be more sensitive to shifting economic conditions than other market segments.  I have broken down this week's news using quotes from classic movies from the 1970s.

​"I have no intention of placing my fate in the hands of men whose only qualification is that they managed to con a block of people to vote for them."-Vito Corleone
 
The fate of the retail sector results continues to be dependent on the lawmakers.  U.S. retail sales rose 5.3% in January compared with the previous month, surpassing economists’ expectations and snapping a three-month string of decreases. The rebound was attributed in large part to stimulus payments that Americans received as part of a $900 billion measure that Congress approved in late December.

“When I first came here, this was all swamp. Everyone said I was daft to build a castle on a swamp, but I built in all the same, just to show them. "– King of the Swamp Castle
 
People are seeking out their own castles.  The demand for houses is skyrocketing as the exodus from cities continues.  The housing market continues to be a catalyst for the broader U.S. economy, as a shortage of homes for sale continued to push prices higher in January. The National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes rose 0.6% in January compared with December. Relative to January of 2020, sales jumped nearly 24%.

There is a useful four letter word, and you're full of it! -James Bond
 
BOND...Government Bond. Prices of U.S. government bonds fell, as longer term bonds continue to be a terrible investment.  Bond prices move opposite interest rates and the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to the highest level in nearly a year. The 10-year yield rose on Friday to around 1.34%; the 30-year U.S. Treasury also rose, with a yield of around 2.14%.  This is still very low by historical standards which means continued pain for investors in the bond market as interest rates rise.
 
I am here to help at any time. If you would like to schedule a phone/web conference appointment, I have included a link to my calendar below and you can self schedule.

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​Hope all is well.  The major U.S. stock indexes all posted gains of more than 1% and set new record highs amid mostly quiet trading. For the S&P 500, Friday produced the index’s tenth record closing price of 2021.  I have broken down the news using this week's holidays.

​Valentine's Day
 
Elon Musk wants Bitcoin to be his Valentine. Bitcoin soared past $47,000, recording a roughly 24% gain for the week. Most of the surge came on Monday after electric vehicle maker Tesla disclosed that it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin and will start accepting the cryptocurrency as a payment method for its cars.

​Presidents Day
 
On Saturday,  the second impeachment trial of our 45th President ended with another acquittal. Now the 46th President and the Congress can get to work on helping the economy get back on track and perhaps we can gradually find common ground on that which divides us.

It was a Fat Tuesday for the NASDAQ.   The NASDAQ, which outperformed the other major indexes and on Tuesday eclipsed the 14,000-point level for the first time to set another record high. Since a recent low on October 30, the NASDAQ has risen about 29%.
 
I am here to help at any time. If you would like to schedule a phone/web conference appointment, I have included a link to my calendar below and you can self schedule.

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​Hope all is well.  The major U.S. stock indexes posted weekly gains from around 4% to 6%, more than making up for the previous week’s losses. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ set new record highs, eclipsing their levels from a couple weeks earlier, while the Dow was just 0.001% shy of its record.  I have broken down this week's news using Doritos Super Bowl commercials.
  

​Flamin’ Hot Limon Doritos 2019 Super Bowl

Small-cap stocks extended their recent run of  flamin’ hot performance relative to their larger company peers posting a nearly 8% gain to set another record high. Since the end of September 2020, the Russell 2000 has surged 48%.

Cool Ranch Doritos 2020 Super Bowl

The job market has cooled. The latest monthly jobs report fell short of most economists’ expectations, as the economy generated just 49,000 new jobs in January. In addition, December’s jobs estimate was revised downward to reflect a loss of 227,000 jobs for that month. Roughly 10 million U.S. jobs have been lost since the pandemic started.

Doritos For The Bold Super Bowl 2014

The weak U.S. jobs report was seen as a positive catalyst for stocks, which climbed modestly on Friday amid expectations that labor market stagnation could increase pressure for the Government to take bold action.  The Senate narrowly backed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion plan, setting up the prospect that the measure could eventually secure final approval through a reconciliation process with a simple majority in the Senate.
 
Enjoy the Super Bowl.  I am here to help at any time. If you would like to schedule a phone/web conference appointment, I have included a link to my calendar below and you can self schedule.


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