Hope all is well.  It was also a fairly quiet week on the economic calendar and headline front, producing a rather small finish to the upside.  This week instead of going over the news much of which highlights the same trends from previous weeks. I thought it made sense to take a look at where we are today 1 year out from where the market bottomed last year. The market rebound has been powered by expectations for the economic recovery and commensurate rebound in corporate profits. Three primary factors have been in the driver's seat: the vaccine (first development, then distribution), monetary-policy stimulus (near 0% rates), and fiscal aid (PPP loans, stimulus checks, etc.). This trifecta has formed a solid foundation upon which the economic recovery commenced and from which the new bull market launched.
 
Here's the markets since last year (Nasdaq in black, S&P in blue, Dow in red)  
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The path ahead for the stock market may be a bit windier.   Faster economic growth and increasing corporate profits will help justify recent strong stock-market gains and elevated valuations. At the same time, the path ahead will produce more moderate gains as much of the rally has been in anticipation of that growth.   More volatility is likely in store. Expect inflation and interest-rate worries to continue to be a primary source of anxiety.  That should not undermine the bull market but anticipate a temporary pullback in the 10 to 15% range at some point during the year. With the S&P at an all-time high it could be time to take some risk off the table and lock in gains.   If you have money in the stock market that you intend to spend in the next 2 years now might be a good time to move that money out of the market.
 
I am here to help at any time. If you would like to schedule a phone/web conference appointment, I have included a link to my calendar below and you can self schedule.

https://booknow.appointment-plus.com/b8hh5y90/

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Hope all is well. Stocks couldn’t maintain their positive momentum from the previous week, as the three major U.S. indexes recorded modest declines of less than 1%.   The S&P 500 hasn’t made any big sustained moves up or down since mid-February.   I have broken down this week's news using lyrics from the classic show tune Don't Rain on My Parade.

I'll march my band out  I'll beat my drum
The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to march its band out and pump up the markets.  They upgraded the economic growth outlook and reiterated the expectations they will keep interest rates at ultralow levels well into the future. In fact, a majority of Fed members expect to see short-term rates stay near zero through 2023.
 
Don't bring around a cloud
No storm clouds this week in the market as short-term volatility has slipped to the lowest level in about 13 months. On Wednesday, the Cboe Volatility Index closed at 19.2—the lowest since the pandemic triggered a spike in volatility.  
 
Don't tell me not to fly I've simply got to
Small cap stocks cooled off a bit this week but  continue to be the most high flying portion of the stock market. Despite the weekly setback, the Russell 2000 remained up more than 50% over the past six months.  Bitcoin continued its ascent as well early in the week, the price of bitcoin briefly climbed above $60,000 for the first time ever.  While it failed to maintain that threshold later in the week it's current price is crazy considering six months ago, bitcoin was trading below $11,000.

I am here to help at any time. If you would like to schedule a phone/web conference appointment, I have included a link to my calendar below and you can self schedule.

https://booknow.appointment-plus.com/b8hh5y90/

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Hope all is well. After posting mixed results the previous week, the major U.S. stock indexes recorded solid gains amid a modest comeback for technology stocks that had recently declined. The Dow gained nearly 4% while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both added more than 2%.   I have broken down this week’s using rides at Coney Island.

The Dow shoots up to a historic high like the Thunderbolt

The index crossed the 32,000 point level for the first time on Wednesday, then pushed its record higher on Thursday as the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 also posted historic highs. It’s been a quick surge to 32,000 for the Dow, which eclipsed 31,000 in early January; in late November, it topped 30,000.
 

NASDAQ’s Cyclone like roller coaster run continues

The NASDAQ fell into a correction on Monday, as its 2.4% decline that day left the index 10.6% below its record high set on February 12 of this year. However, the technology stock-oriented index rebounded sharply, recording a cumulative gain of 6.3% over the course of Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Economy getting off the Wonder Wheel

The economy is trying to come full circle and get back to pre-pandemic levels.  Many sectors of the economy are there.  To complete the recovery, the most economically vulnerable need to be taken care of. The COVID-19 relief bill hopes to do that. Following its narrow approval in Congress, a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill was signed into law on Thursday by President Biden. The bill helps fund vaccinations which is critical for a return to profitability for the industries most hard hit by Covid restrictions (travel, dining,entertainment,etc.). The measure will provide a $1,400 check to many Americans, extend a $300 weekly jobless-aid supplement, and expand the child tax credit for one year, with the hope that money gets spent in local economies throughout the country.
 
I am here to help at any time. If you would like to schedule a phone/web conference appointment, I have included a link to my calendar below and you can self schedule.

https://booknow.appointment-plus.com/b8hh5y90/

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